Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 17.366270 19.810550 22.444931 25.491493 28.913785 32.635479 36.985318
2025-01-12 13.558535 16.828902 20.627156 25.349340 31.046681 37.681749 45.976529
2025-01-19 10.977482 14.402479 18.579309 24.020888 30.893112 39.251122 50.150318
2025-01-26 9.835275 13.537862 18.246897 24.631961 33.014091 43.587182 57.870013
2025-02-02 8.980515 12.887015 18.039147 25.269055 35.079226 47.842488 65.604741
2025-02-09 8.008113 11.950040 17.328581 25.121206 36.023136 50.616231 71.485782
2025-02-16 7.133625 11.042699 16.548406 24.765583 36.590830 52.839445 76.663146
2025-02-23 6.529662 10.455762 16.149263 24.880759 37.773642 55.914446 83.117983
2025-03-02 6.054544 10.007926 15.899741 25.166943 39.181171 59.336238 90.192574
2025-03-09 5.581578 9.513759 15.530211 25.225971 40.226127 62.253126 96.643634
2025-03-16 5.091476 8.943672 14.991357 24.970578 40.754133 64.402528 102.028823
2025-03-23 4.748843 8.580319 14.741695 25.134462 41.911882 67.520406 108.979874
2025-03-30 4.555820 8.458954 14.882564 25.948799 44.166559 72.470149 119.056398
2025-04-06 4.174794 7.979791 14.397784 25.704087 44.705144 74.779781 125.145493
2025-04-13 3.647953 7.191273 13.325670 24.390185 43.392712 74.061307 126.358726
2025-04-20 3.494309 7.065841 13.382938 24.999106 45.305314 78.601189 136.217242
2025-04-27 3.358764 6.960805 13.464788 25.648570 47.311185 83.372547 146.651690
2025-05-04 3.116284 6.629140 13.112355 25.497471 47.914440 85.828575 153.338556
2025-05-11 2.867132 6.261252 12.664124 25.137353 48.118221 87.603022 158.934280
2025-05-18 2.701710 6.045732 12.483641 25.253983 49.170399 90.861605 167.184424
2025-05-25 2.570398 5.888093 12.400758 25.544151 50.545222 94.729483 176.637852
2025-06-01 2.422032 5.681205 12.205840 25.603976 51.490673 97.872878 184.940312
2025-06-08 2.250435 5.408797 11.860181 25.345074 51.817302 99.915528 191.359378